Countries must reduce emissions by 28 percent to cap global warming at 2 degrees celsius and by 42 percent to meet the 1.5 degrees celsius goal
The world is on a trajectory towards a temperature increase of approximately 3 degrees celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, even if nations fully implement their nationally-determined contributions (NDCs) or action plans to reduce emissions of planet-warming gases, as per a new report released by the United Nations.
According to the United Nations Environment Programme's Emissions Gap Report 2023, titled "Broken Record," countries must reduce emissions by 28 percent to cap global warming at 2 degrees celsius and by 42 percent to meet the 1.5 degrees celsius goal. The report, unveiled ahead of the 28th session of the annual UN climate talks (COP28) in Dubai, reveals that global emissions increased by 1.2 percent in 2021–2022.
The report states, "Fully implementing efforts implied by unconditional Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) would put the world on track for limiting temperature rise to 2.9 degrees celsius. Conditional NDCs fully implemented would lead to temperatures not exceeding 2.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels."
Under the Paris Agreement, nations committed to limiting the global average temperature increase to well below 2 degrees Celsius and striving for efforts to restrict the increase to 1.5 degrees celsius.
Despite progress since the signing of the Paris Agreement, with the 2016 report projecting warming of up to 3.4 degrees Celsius in a business-as-usual scenario, the world remains significantly distant from limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius to avert extreme, destructive, and likely irreversible effects of climate change, according to the UN.
The world is already witnessing unprecedented heat, floods, wildfires, cyclones, and droughts at just 1.1 degrees of global warming. Until the beginning of October, 86 days this year recorded temperatures over 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with September being the hottest recorded month ever, experiencing global average temperatures 1.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Antònio Guterres, Secretary-General of the UN, emphasised, "We know it is still possible to make the 1.5 degree limit a reality. It requires tearing out the poisoned root of the climate crisis: fossil fuels. And it demands a just, equitable renewables transition."
The report calls for all nations to undertake comprehensive, low-carbon development transformations, with a specific focus on energy transition. The report highlights that the coal, oil, and gas extracted over their lifecycles and planned mines and fields would emit over three-and-a-half times the carbon budget available to limit warming to 1.5 degrees celsius and nearly the entire budget available for 2 degrees celsius.
Developed countries have already consumed over 80 percent of the global carbon budget, leaving countries like India with limited carbon space for the future.
The report emphasises that high-income and high-emitting countries, particularly among the G20, need to take more ambitious and rapid action, providing financial and technical support to developing nations. As low- and middle-income countries already contribute more than two-thirds of global greenhouse gas emissions, addressing energy demand patterns and prioritising clean energy supply chains is crucial in these nations.
Harjeet Singh, the head of global political strategy at the New Delhi-based Climate Action Network International, warned that the world is on thin ice. "The stark reality is that the projected emissions from coal, oil, and gas extraction are on track to exceed the carbon budget needed to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by more than three-and-a-half times," he stated.