COP 28: Discussions after a first week of pageantry and official visits now become more difficult, particularly when it comes to language calling for the potential phase-out of the use of emission-spewing fossil fuels
The United Nations climate conference entered its critical final week on Friday, with a focus on deliberations about the future of fossil fuels amid a planet facing alarming warming trends. UN Climate Chief Simon Stiell emphasised the urgency, stating, "It's go-time for governments at COP28 this week."
As the second week commenced, discussions intensified, especially regarding language advocating for a potential phase-out of fossil fuels. Such language is anticipated to encounter resistance from major oil producers like Saudi Arabia, which is located next to the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The UAE itself plans to increase oil production from 4 million to 5 million barrels per day, aiming to capitalise on the fossil fuel market before potential shifts away from its use.
Stiell underscored the gravity of the situation, emphasising the irreversible impact on the planet if emissions are not curtailed. He warned of melting ice shelves causing catastrophic flooding in coastal cities worldwide and emphasised the importance of meeting emission reduction goals.
A report released during the summit warned that the melting of ice sheets could reach a point of no return with further warming. Negotiators are actively working to finalise the Global Stocktake, a pivotal document assessing global climate change progress since the 2015 Paris Agreement. The goal is to avoid surpassing the agreement's target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to preindustrial times.
While a draft of the Global Stocktake is already circulating, the content remains uncertain, with divergent possibilities. Senior national officials, including ministers, are set to take over from professional negotiators to make crucial political decisions. Stiell criticised the current text as a blend of posturing and lowest common denominator positions, emphasising the need for compromises without compromising the 1.5-degree goal.
COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber expressed optimism about achieving a paradigm shift based on scientific evidence. While not explicitly committing to a phase-down of oil, coal, and gas, he emphasised the need for a collective decision, leaving the outcome open to negotiations.
EU countries, small island nations, and some progressive Latin American countries advocate for a fossil fuel phase-out, facing resistance from other quarters. Despite the challenges, officials are confident that references to fossil fuels will appear in the final text for the first time, aligning with UN science reports.
On youth day at the conference, activists emphasised the vital role of young people in climate activism, urging leaders to prioritise a just and equitable phase-out of all fossil fuels. The Emiratis insisted that COP28 would end on time, but scepticism remains given the history of climate summits running beyond schedule. The conference site, Dubai Expo City, has already begun advertising Christmas events for the public by December 15.