Just Phase-Out Of Fossil Fuels Finds Place On Global Stocktake Draft

A new version of the Global Stocktake was released during the ongoing UN Climate Summit (COP28) provides options for key issues of negotiations, such as mitigation, fossil fuels, equity, and historical responsibility.

This year's conference will conclude the first Global Stocktake (GST), which will likely evaluate how countries have performed so far in achieving their Paris Agreement objectives. The draft text proposes options for tripling global renewable capacity by 2030, compared to the 2022 levels, to 11,000 GW. It also suggests doubling the global average annual rate of energy-efficiency improvement compared to 2022 levels to 4.1 percent by 2030. 

There is room for "zero and low emission" technologies to be widely implemented globally. Low-emission technologies include abatement and removal technologies, such as carbon capture, utilisation, storage, and low-carbon hydrogen production. 

Some experts have pointed out that zero and low-emission technologies are a proxy for natural gas use. The text has options for the orderly and just phaseout of fossil fuels, accelerating efforts towards phasing out unabated fossil fuels and rapidly reducing their service to achieve net-zero CO2 in energy systems by or around mid-century. But, for these, the draft also gives the option of no text. 

According to the IPCC, reducing unabated coal use by 75 percent from 2019 to 2030 is a suggested pathway to combat climate change. Option two has no information available. Among the other options is to increase the deployment of zero-emission vehicles rapidly and, in the medium term, gradually eliminate inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. 

The IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report suggests that historical emissions and the use of the world's carbon space are not distributed equitably. Developed countries have emitted more greenhouse gases in the past despite having a smaller share of the global population. Therefore, it is necessary to recognise that equitable mitigation action is guided by historical responsibility, with the developed countries taking the lead in mitigation actions. 

Recognising the importance of equity can help the world set even higher and more ambitious climate targets and, consequently, increase the likelihood of meeting the long-term objectives of the Paris Agreement. 

The text expresses concern that 2023 is set to be the warmest year on record. It adds that impacts from the climate crisis are rapidly accelerating, emphasising the need for urgent action to keep within the 1.5°C goal. 

The draft acknowledges that it is necessary to peak global greenhouse gas emissions before 2025 to contain global warming to within 1.5°C. Achieving this will require a sustained reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of 43 percent by 2030 and 60 percent by 2035, relative to 2019. The ultimate objective is to attain a state where the amount of carbon dioxide emissions produced is equal to the amount removed from the atmosphere by 2050. 

While COP28 is still in its early days, leaving out scope for consensus to be reached on some of the critical issues, the draft text shows divergent views could derail the negotiations. 

The most concerning section is on fossil fuels. Three key options are phase out of unabated fossil fuels with a mid-century timeline, unabated coal (no oil + gas) by 2030, or no text on fossil fuels. A Global Stocktake decision without clear guidance on how to phase out fossil fuels would be a massive distraction and a missed opportunity. 

It is recommended that governments avoid using the terms' abatement' and 'low emissions' technologies as they are often poorly defined and only refer to carbon capture and storage or hydrogen and ammonia production with carbon capture (known as 'blue' hydrogen/ammonia).

Instead, they should focus on agreeing to a fair and just phaseout of fossil fuel production and use while also tripling the use of renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency. This is particularly important for governments in Dubai to consider. 

Noting that there were several good announcements in the initial days of the summit, experts said the text "is nearly doing away with pre-2020 commitments. That is very concerning. Historic responsibility and differentiated responsibilities are a part of the Paris Agreement, which should not be diluted.  

The second iteration of the Global Stocktake text includes optional suggestions from country Parties, which may or may not be included. However, it is concerning that the phaseout of fossil fuels is listed as optional.

It is crucial that the GST mandates an equitable phaseout of all fossil fuels. Singling out coal or having no text on the matter is unacceptable for a favourable outcome. The "way forward" section is currently unclear, with over 20 bullet points that need to be prioritised and fleshed out for actionable items. 

The United States has made some changes to the Global Stocktake text, recommending the deletion of references to developed countries' obligation to provide climate change finance. However, it has called for more countries in an advantageous position to provide the finance. 

Experts have expressed concern about the optional nature of many of the suggestions made by the country Parties in the second iteration of the Global Stocktake text. They emphasise the need for a mandate to equitably phase out all fossil fuels, rather than singling out coal or omitting the issue entirely. Currently, the "way forward" section is unclear, with over 20 bullet points that require prioritisation and further elaboration for actionable items, which is disconcerting. 

According to the Centre for Science and Environment, the US has proposed edits to the Global Stocktake text that would remove references to developed countries' finance obligations but call for more countries "in position" to provide finance. The US has also suggested removing CBDR in the paragraph on improving financial flows.