COP 28: According to the report, the five major tipping points are the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheets, the North Atlantic subpolar Gyre Circulation, warm-water coral reefs and some permafrost regions
A dire warning was issued by a coalition of 200 scientists at the UN climate conference in Dubai, asserting that the world is on the brink of surpassing five critical thresholds essential for life on Earth due to current levels of warming. The groundbreaking "Global Tipping Points" report, unveiled at COP28, represents the most comprehensive assessment to date on the boundaries of natural systems.
Identifying 26 tipping points, the report singles out five pivotal ones already under imminent threat due to global warming. These include the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheets, the North Atlantic subpolar gyre circulation, warm-water coral reefs, and specific permafrost regions. According to lead author Prof. Tim Lenon, these tipping points present unprecedented threats to humanity.
The report emphasises the urgency of addressing these tipping points, with the cryosphere already vulnerable. The scientists stress that breaching these thresholds would pose challenges of unprecedented magnitude. On a more positive note, the report identifies potential tipping points in social progress, highlighting the growth of renewable energy as a positive reinforcement.
Dr. Steve Smith, affiliated with the University of Exeter, underscores the existence of positive tipping points, citing the example of electric vehicles becoming the dominant form of road transport with concurrent advancements in battery technology.
However, the report emphasises the critical need for swift action, particularly highlighting the window to prevent breaching these tipping points closing as global temperatures approach 1.5 degrees Celsius. Negotiators at the climate talks are grappling with strategies to address the primary driver of global warming—fossil fuel burning.
Manjana Milkoreit from the University of Oslo underscores the urgency, stating that even achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century won't suffice to prevent surpassing these critical thresholds. She advocates for a substantial shift in mitigation efforts and an active phaseout of fossil fuels.
Izabella Koziell of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) warns of early tipping points affecting Asia's mountain glaciers, leading to landslides, floods, erratic weather, and extreme conditions. ICIMOD is actively engaged in promoting sustainable mountain development in the Hindu Kush Himalaya, a crucial global water reservoir.