Researchers from Climate Central have assessed the frequency and magnitude of temperature deviations from the historical average in their study using a methodology called the Climate Shift Index
An analysis employing a metric called the Climate Shift Index (CSI) reveals that climate change at least quadrupled the likelihood of the recent heat wave in Uttar Pradesh that caused several hospitalisations in the state. CSI is a tool that calculates the amount of climate change that affects daily temperatures.
It was created by Climate Central, a non-profit organisation of scientists and communicators with offices in the US. Up until Monday, 68 patients passed away at the Ballia district hospital in Uttar Pradesh during a brutal heat wave. Only two people, according to officials, passed away from heat stroke. According to various news reports, casualties due to the severe heat were also reported in the nearby Deoria area.
Climate Central researchers used CSI to evaluate how frequently and how much temperatures have deviated from the historical average in their investigation. A higher index denotes a more significant change from the past.
Climate change is indicated by CSI values higher than 1. Levels between two and five indicate that the likelihood of those temperatures increasing by a factor of two to five due to climate change.
According to the data, some areas of Uttar Pradesh experienced temperatures that have at least tripled in likelihood as a result of climate change, or CSI levels of three.According to new data, human-caused climate change increased the likelihood of a three-day intense heat event across Uttar Pradesh from June 14–16 by at least two times, according to researchers at Climate Central.
They claimed that the intensity of the incident was a result of the combination of extremely high temperatures and excessive humidity.
"We see again and again that climate change dramatically increases the frequency and intensity of heat waves, one of the deadliest weather events that exist. Our most recent World Weather Attribution (WWA) study has shown that this has been recognised in India, but the implementation of heat action plans is slow.
"It needs to be an absolute priority to take adaptation action everywhere," said Friederike Otto, the co-lead of WWA, a panel of international experts that study the role of climate change in extreme weather events.
Thirteen people lost their lives in April at a gathering in Navi Mumbai's Kharghar due to heat and prolonged sun exposure.
According to medical professionals, heat stroke happens when the body's temperature control mechanism malfunctions and it overheats. An extremely high body temperature, quick breathing, rapid heartbeat, disturbed mental status, and occasionally dry skin or no perspiration are common symptoms. However, because these signs might also appear in other medical conditions, it can be challenging to determine the exact cause of death from heat stroke.
In the absence of any rain-producing weather systems, heatwave conditions persisted for roughly 10 days in east Uttar Pradesh, east Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, and Chhattisgarh, and for roughly 12 days in Odisha, Jharkhand, Telangana, and north coastal Andhra Pradesh.
When a station's highest temperature exceeds 40 degrees Celsius in the plains, 37 degrees Celsius along the coast, and 30 degrees Celsius in mountainous areas, and the difference from normal is at least 4.5 degrees Celsius, a heatwave is declared.
The main form of government reaction to both economically harmful and potentially fatal heat waves is heat action plans. To lessen the effects of heat waves, these recommendations recommend a number of activities, disaster responses, and post-heatwave reaction measures.
Mariam Zachariah, a researcher at Imperial College London and WWA, said, "The combination of extreme heat and humidity is particularly dangerous for humans, even more so in urban contexts where the heat island effect can further increase temperatures. Unless carbon emissions are rapidly reduced, these life-threatening events will become more frequent and intense."
According to a report released by the IMD in May, most of India will experience a rise of 12–18 days in the length of heat waves by 2060.
According to research written by scientists Kamaljit Ray, S S Ray, R K Giri, and A P Dimri, as well as M Rajeevan, a former secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, more than 17,000 lives were lost in India due to heat waves over the course of 50 years.
According to research written in 2021, India registered 706 heatwave occurrences between 1971 and 2019.
A key climatic danger for South Asian countries, according to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, is the increased mortality rate from heat waves.
According to the paper, if preventative and reactive measures are not adopted, a small increase in average temperature or a modest lengthening of heatwaves could cause a considerable rise in mortality rates in India.
On a national level, India has not yet formally declared heat waves a natural catastrophe. Extremely hot spells can have a huge impact on human health, but research has also shown that many crops can experience reproductive failure and severe output reductions.
A McKinsey Global Institute survey states that roughly 75% of Indian workers face stress related to the heat. According to the analysis, by 2030, the nation might lose 2.5% to 4.50% of its Gross Domestic Product annually if this trend persists.
India has been experiencing record-breaking heat, with February 2023 setting a new record dating back to the year 1901. In 2022, it was the third warmest and driest March in 121 years in 2022. The third-warmest April in the nation since 1901 also occurred this year.