Initiatives such as early voting options, improved infrastructure resilience, and public awareness campaigns are crucial to mitigate the effects of extreme weather on voter turnout and ensure democratic participation
India is scheduled to go for elections from 19 April to 1 Jun 2024. One of the questions that arises is if there will be any extreme weather events that can disrupt elections in any part of the country.
Mahesh Palawat, vice president, meteorology and climate, Skymet Weather Services, says, “The weather during the elections will be hot in the month of April. Around April 19 and 26 during the phase 1 and 2 most of the central and southern states will have temperatures of more than 40 degrees.” States of the northeast India such as Assam, Manipur Mizoram and Tripura will be very warm with temperatures in mid 30s. Rajasthan, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh will be very hot with temperatures between 42-45 degrees. South Peninsula will be dry and very hot, he adds.
Such conditions will either continue or get severe during the next phases. He says, “Weather will be very hot and dry for most of the states in second half of May except in the hills of western Himalayas. Although pre-monsoon activities were common in later parts of April and May in northwest India and east India, but intensity usually increases in May.” He adds, “We cannot say as of now whether there will be dust storms and thundershowers at the time of polling dates but these cannot be ruled out. Norwesters called as Kalbaishakhi are common in east India in May and first half of June. These are local weather activities associated with strong winds and heavy rain and thunderstorms.”
The weather forecasts are in keeping with the trend of last many years. A report by the Centre for Science and Environment has highlighted that 314 out of 365 days in India witnessed extreme weather occurrences during 2022. It implies that on each of these days, a minimum of one extreme weather event was recorded in some part of the country.
The Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region, a report of the Ministry of Earth Sciences (2020), states that India has observed a rise in average temperature since the middle of the 20th century. While monsoon precipitation has decreased, extreme temperature and rainfall events, droughts and sea levels, and intensity of severe cyclones intensity have increased.
India is not alone. Aarti Khosla, Director, Climate Trends, says, “As close to 49 percent of the global population heads to vote across 64 countries this year. Year 2024 will remain politically consequential for years to come. In this backdrop, planning election schedules keeping climate sensitivities in mind will only prove beneficial in the short and long term for canvassing leaders. Issues centred on changing weather, local climate systems and their socio-economic and political implications are weighing in on the voters in a multitude of direct and indirect ways.”
She adds, “Whether it is voting amidst scorching heatwaves, erratic monsoons affecting the agriculture sector, or declining produce in fisheries, to name a few. Sensitivity to the realities of climate change from planning election schedules to shaping policy frameworks will prove which of these elected leaders can take the stage as climate champions."
Anjal Prakash, Clinical Associate Professor (Research) and Research Director, Bharti Institute of Public Policy, Indian School of Business, and an IPCC author, says that the change in weather also impacts human activities and holds importance during elections as well. He adds, “Extreme weather events like heatwaves and flooding may adversely affect voter turnout during general elections in India. Heatwaves, particularly in regions with high temperatures, discourage people from venturing out to polling stations, leading to lower participation rates. Similarly, flooding disrupts transportation and infrastructure, making it difficult for voters to reach polling booths. These events disproportionately impact marginalised communities who may lack resources to cope.”
India has already seen natural disasters causing postponement of elections. Cyclone Fani led to postponement of elections in one constituency during the Odisha state assembly elections in 2019. Such events are bound to increase with the climate crisis worsening.
To deal with the impacts of climate change on elections, Prakash suggests, “Initiatives such as early voting options, improved infrastructure resilience, and public awareness campaigns are crucial to mitigate the effects of extreme weather on voter turnout and ensure democratic participation.”