Asia, with an emphasis on China and India, dominates the list of provinces at risk, accounting for more than half of the top 200 in 2050
Nine Indian states are among the top 50 locations worldwide where eight climate change hazards threaten the built environment, according to a recent study. 80 per cent of the top 50 most vulnerable states and provinces in 2050, according to the data, will be in China, the United States, and India. The built environment includes our residences, the water and energy distribution systems, and the highways, bridges, and other modes of transportation.
India with 9 States - Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Assam, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Punjab, and Kerala, stands behind China which has the top 50 in the list.
Ranking the states according to aggregated risk from climate change hazards in 2050 under RCP8.5, Bihar stands at the 22nd position in South Asia with 141 per cent risk, Assam occupies the 28th position with 331 per cent risk, Maharashtra is at 38 with 81 per cent risk, Tamil Nadu is at 36th place with 71 per cent risk, Gujarat is at 44th place with 64% risk, Rajasthan is at 32nd place with 57 per cent risk. RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) is the carbon concentration that causes global warming to occur on average at 8.5 watts per square metre worldwide.
The analysis "Gross Domestic Climate Risk" (GDCR), which calculates the physical climate risk to the built environment in more than 2,600 territories worldwide in 2050, has been published by the Cross Dependency Initiative (XDI), a member of the Climate Risk Group.
Based on modelled projections of damage to structures and properties from extreme weather and climate change, such as flooding, forest fires, heatwaves, and sea level rise, these states were compared in the XDI Gross Domestic Climate Risk dataset. Asia, with an emphasis on China and India, dominates the list of provinces at risk, accounting for more than half (114) of the top 200 in 2050.
This is the first physical climate risk analysis that compares every state, province, and territory in the world while focusing solely on the built environment. Beijing, Jakarta, Ho Chi Minh City, Taiwan, and Mumbai are among the top 100 Asian cities for damage risk because they are highly developed and have substantial worldwide economic impact.
“In terms of overall scale of damage risk, and in terms of risk escalation, Asia has the most to lose as climate change extreme weather increases, and the most to gain from preventing worsening climate change and accelerating climate resilient investment. This is the most sophisticated global analysis of physical climate risk to date, offering a breadth and depth and granularity on a scale we haven’t seen before. Now – for the first time – the finance industry can directly compare Mumbai, New York and Berlin using a like-for-like methodology,” said XDI CEO Rohan Hamden.
More than half (114) of the top 200 provinces in 2050 are located in Asia, which tops the list of provinces at risk.
In East Asia, there are 54 of them, including 29 in China, 20 in Japan, and 4 in South Korea.
South East Asia is home to 36 of them, including Vietnam and Indonesia, while South Asia only has 24
Numerous Pakistani provinces, including Sindh, are among the top 100. Between June and August 2022, devastating floods ruined more than 900,000 homes in Sindh province, which made up 30% of Pakistan's land area.
Between 1990 and 2050, South East Asia will have the largest increase in damage of any region on earth. The Sulu Archipelago, Tawi-Tawi, and Camiguin islands in Mindanao, the Philippines, are among the regions with the biggest percentage increases in damage to 2050.
The rankings place numerous major cities and economic hubs from across the world within the top 200 out of 2,639 states, with globally significant states and provinces in China and the USA leading the list. These are concentrated in the globally connected east and south of China, which is ranked first, along the floodplains and deltas of the Yangtze and Pearl Rivers. The most affected states in the US are California, Texas, and Florida because of their importance to the economy.