Speaking for the developing world, India to stress the importance of balancing power demands against environmental concerns at COP28 and ask the rich nations to do more
India has affirmed its commitment to expanding coal-fired energy generation as it prepares to articulate the demands of developing nations for a more equitable share of the carbon emissions budget at the UN Climate Change Conference in Dubai from Nov. 30 to Dec. 12.
Ranked as the world's third-largest emitter of carbon dioxide, following China and the US, India has experienced a surge in electricity demand, rising by 9.6 percent in the fiscal year 2023 due to its thriving economy. Minister of Power and New and Renewable Energy, RK Singh, highlighted the forthcoming pressure on coal-consuming countries, emphasising India's stance on prioritising power availability for sustained growth.
Public-sector power entities are constructing approximately 27 gigawatts of predominantly coal-based thermal plants. However, Singh deems this insufficient, asserting the need for at least 80 gigawatts of new capacity to meet future demands.
In September, India generated 149.66 terawatt-hours of electricity, with coal-fired sources contributing 73 percent (108.70 terawatt-hours), a 17 percent year-on-year increase. S&P Global Commodity Insights forecasts a rise in India's coal-fired generation share to 77 percent by 2025, followed by a decline to 71 percent in 2030 and 52 percent by 2050.
Rashika Gupta, Research and Analysis Director at S&P Global, argued that coal remains essential for India, given the lengthy timelines for building nuclear and hydro facilities, the unavailability of gas, and the high cost of LNG. Gupta emphasised that coal aligns with India's operational expertise, backed by indigenous capacity for construction.
Despite the prevailing emphasis on coal, India's use of natural gas is experiencing notable growth, witnessing a 19 percent year-over-year increase in demand across all sectors to reach 6,524 million cubic feet per day in the third quarter of 2023.
India's renewable power sector is among the fastest-growing globally, with annual capacity additions ranging from 15 to 20 gigawatts. While renewables are expected to surpass coal capacity additions in the next decade, Gupta anticipates some ongoing coal additions, with a potential transition evident around 2035.
Concerning carbon credits, COP28's global stocktake is anticipated to rejuvenate India's carbon project developers. With the issuance of carbon credits from Indian projects totalling 309 million, representing 17 percent of the global market, there is a growing focus on business participation in achieving emission reduction targets.
As COP28 negotiations unfold, geopolitical divisions between developed and developing nations are expected to play a central role. India, alongside China, emphasises the responsibility developed countries bear as the largest cumulative emitters. Previously supporting a "phasedown" of fossil fuels, India is pushing developed nations to commit to being "carbon negative" by 2050, surpassing their current net-zero pledges.
In a reference scenario, S&P Global predicts India's carbon emissions will rise from 2.48 billion metric tons per year in 2023 to 2.9 billion in 2030, reaching 3.37 billion in 2045. India has pledged to reduce emissions intensity by 45 percent by 2030 compared to 2005 levels, aiming for net-zero emissions by 2070 under its Nationally Determined Contributions.