The government has set year-wise renewable energy purchase targets through to 2030, requiring electricity distribution companies to increase their share of electricity from renewable sources to 43.3 percent
A new study by NITI Aayog estimates that India needs 517.34 GW of installed renewable energy capacity by 2029-30 to meet the renewable purchase obligation (RPO) target of its 30 states and union territories. Out of this, 177.74 GW RE (including 71.14 GW solar) has already been installed as of July 2023, while 339.6 GW needs to be installed. Within this balance requirement of almost 340 GW (from July 2023 onwards), solar of 262.24 GW, wind of 60.22 GW, hydro of 13.05 GW and bioenergy of 4.1 GW need to be installed in the next seven years.
The government, recognising the importance of renewable energy, has set a year-wise trajectory of RPOs, including energy storage obligations, for 2030. This trajectory requires the obligated entities, mainly electricity distribution companies (DISCOMs), in each state, to meet their minimum share (24.3 percent in 2023 to 43.3 percent in 2030) of electricity purchase from renewable energy (RE) sources. The role of a DISCOM is crucial in driving the country's consumption of renewables and helping it achieve its climate action goals. These goals aim to increase the share of non-fossil fuel-based power capacity to 50 percent by 2030.
The study, a collaborative effort of NITI Aayog, the Central Electricity Authority (CEA), and the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), presents a detailed analysis of the RE technical potential that can be harnessed to meet RPOs of each state. It also outlines the RE capacity that needs to be procured by the deficit states from other RE-rich states, as well as the storage requirement to meet the required grid balancing. This comprehensive study considers various parameters such as RE capacity utilisation factors, available potential, past generation, and expected technological improvements.
According to the study, 269.79 GW can be mobilised within the states, and 69.81 GW needs to be procured from other states to meet the RPO target in 2029-30. Of 30 states and union territories in the country, 21 states will be able to meet their RPO target by mobilising the potential within the state, and nine states need to procure RE power from other surplus states.
The study also reveals that over 48.5 GW of RE capacity needs to be installed per year till 2029-30 to meet the RPO target. This is in line with the MNRE’s bidding calendar that intends to mobilize 50 GW of RE with at least 10 GW of wind till 2027-28.
In terms of adherence to individual RPO targets, seven states need to procure wind from other states, five states need to procure hydro from different states, and eight states need to procure solar from other states. The study also estimates storage requirement at 59.73 GW, comprising 41.13 GW of 5-hour battery storage system and 18.6 GW of pumped hydro. In terms of funding requirements, the study estimates that an investment in the range of INR 18.55-24.9 lakh crore is required to meet the RPO target in 2029-30.