The report comes ahead of the 28th UN Climate Change Conference in Dubai, where countries are expected to push for stronger climate action to limit warming to 1.5 degrees
Global emissions are projected to decrease by only 2 percent below 2019 levels by 2030, falling far short of the necessary 43 percent reduction to avert the most severe consequences of climate change, as outlined in a recent United Nations report.
This revelation comes ahead of the 28th UN Climate Change Conference in Dubai, where nations are anticipated to advocate for more robust climate measures to cap global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a consortium of leading climate scientists, has emphasised the imperative to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 percent by 2030, relative to 2019 levels. This reduction is critical to restrain the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the close of the century, thereby mitigating the heightened risk of recurrent and severe droughts, heatwaves, and rainfall.
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) examined the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of 195 parties to the Paris Agreement, including 20 new or updated NDCs submitted up until September 25.
In concordance with last year's analysis, the new report indicates that while emissions are anticipated to plateau after 2030 compared to 2019 levels, they are not evidencing the swift downward trajectory demanded by scientific recommendations for this decade.
Should the latest NDCs be implemented, existing commitments are estimated to increase emissions by approximately 8.8 percent compared to 2010 levels. This marks a marginal improvement over last year's assessment, which indicated that countries were on track to increase emissions by 10.6 percent by 2030, relative to 2010 levels.
The report underscores that global emissions are anticipated to be only 2 percent below 2019 levels by 2030, underscoring that the peak of global emissions is expected within this decade.
To achieve the peaking of emissions before 2030, the report asserts, "The conditional elements of the NDCs need to be implemented, which depends mostly on access to enhanced financial resources, technology transfer and technical cooperation, and capacity-building support, as well as the availability of market-based mechanisms."
Sultan Al Jaber, the designated President of COP28, stated, "Today's synthesis report of national climate plans underscores the need for us to act with greater ambition and urgency to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement—there is simply no time left for delays."
Simon Stiell, the Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change, emphasised the need for COP28 to be a turning point, urging governments to not only agree on stronger climate actions but also to demonstrate how these actions will be implemented.
Stiell highlighted that COP28's Global Stocktake, a two-year UN review process, must serve as a moment for nations to intensify their efforts and align with the objectives of the Paris Agreement.
The Global Stocktake report, released by UN Climate Change, identifies areas where progress is insufficient. Stiell stressed that governments must effectively utilise the toolbox of tools and solutions proposed by countries to accelerate action, meeting the expectations of billions of people worldwide.