The study points out that urgent measures are needed to mitigate the impact of global warming and protect the economy and well-being of the population if India is to avoid massive productivity losses
According to a new study published in Global Change Biology, climate change could cause labour productivity to drop significantly in countries such as India and Pakistan. The research predicts that labour productivity could fall as low as 40 percent by the century's end, which could threaten global food production.
The study also suggests that other regions in Southeast and South Asia, West and Central Africa, and northern South America could see physical work capacity reduced to 70 percent due to climate change. Agricultural workers who plant, till, and harvest much of the food we need will also suffer from heat exposure, reducing their ability to work in the field.
The study used computational models to predict the physical work capacity (PWC) under different climate change scenarios. The models were based on data from more than 700 heat stress trials, including observing people working in a wide range of temperatures and humidities and differing weather conditions such as sunshine and wind.
The maximum work capacity achievable by individuals in a cool climate was used as the benchmark for the study, representing 100 percent physical work capacity.
Reductions in capacity mean people are limited in what they can physically do, even if they are motivated to work. This may translate to farmers needing extra workers to do the same job, or if these are not available, then reducing their crop sizes.
The study shows that agricultural workers are already feeling the heat, with half the world's cropland farmers estimated to be working below 86 percent capacity in recent past climate conditions.
The researchers also considered potential adaptations to mitigate the impact of climate change on agricultural workers, such as switching to night-time or shaded work to reduce direct solar radiation. This led to a 5–10 percent improvement in worker productivity. A second option is to increase the global use of mechanical machinery and equipment, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, where agricultural practices primarily involve hard physical labour.